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Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 09:30

Rochedale Rovers

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.9%0-26.0%0-34.1%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.4%1-18.9%1-29.0%1-36.1%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.3%2-16.7%2-26.8%2-34.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.7%3-13.4%3-23.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 34.5% 2.90 +5.0%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 41.9% 50.0% 2.00 -16.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 56.5% 1.77 -20.7%

BTTS 63.5% 78.1% 1.28 -18.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Away O1.5 50.0% 67.6% 1.48 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 42% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochedale Rovers1.5

Eastern Suburbs2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEDALE ROVERS · PPG 1.20

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Rochedale Rovers (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +5.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Eastern Suburbs (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochedale Rovers face Eastern Suburbs in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochedale Rovers a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Eastern Suburbs 42%, so Eastern Suburbs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rochedale Rovers and 2.0 for Eastern Suburbs (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochedale Rovers are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Eastern Suburbs.

Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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