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Gold Coast United vs Gold Coast Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 05:15

Gold Coast United

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gold Coast Knights

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.5%0-28.1%0-35.8%0-4+5.2%1 1-04.1%1-19.0%1-29.7%1-37.0%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.5%2-15.4%2-25.8%2-34.2%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 22.7% 4.40 +8.1%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Away win 53.2% 63.7% 1.57 -16.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 70.4% 1.42 -9.7%

Over 3.5 40.6% 48.8% 2.05 -16.8%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 33.1% 39.2% 2.55 -15.6%

Away O1.5 54.5% 70.4% 1.42 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.1%

A 53% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 1–3 7.0%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold Coast United1.2

Gold Coast Knights2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD COAST UNITED · PPG 0.67

GOLD COAST KNIGHTS · PPG 1.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.96 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gold Coast United (H) 25.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +8.1%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

Gold Coast Knights (A) 53.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold Coast United face Gold Coast Knights in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold Coast United a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Gold Coast Knights 53%, so Gold Coast Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gold Coast United and 2.2 for Gold Coast Knights (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold Coast United are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.44 for Gold Coast Knights. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Gold Coast United vs Gold Coast Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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