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Lions vs Peninsula Power Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 08:00

Lions

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Peninsula Power

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.9%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.4%1-110.4%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 46.5% 2.15 +5.1%

Draw 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -7.8%

Away win 28.1% 37.7% 2.65 -15.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 72.5% 1.38 -12.2%

Over 3.5 40.3% 51.3% 1.95 -21.4%

BTTS 62.1% 75.2% 1.33 -17.4%

Home O1.5 49.4% 60.6% 1.65 -18.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 54.6% 1.83 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lions1.8

Peninsula Power1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LIONS · PPG 2.56

PENINSULA POWER · PPG 2.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lions (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +5.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.8%

Peninsula Power (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lions face Peninsula Power in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lions a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Peninsula Power 28%, so Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lions and 1.4 for Peninsula Power (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lions are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 2.22 for Peninsula Power.

Lions vs Peninsula Power Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Queensland Predictions