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Orijent vs Opatija Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:30

Orijent

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Opatija

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+51.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-13.2%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.4%1-17.1%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.2%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-15.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.6% 51.3% 1.95 +51.3%

Draw 15.8% 34.5% 2.90 -54.2%

Away win 6.6% 27.0% 3.70 -75.6%

Over 2.5 51.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.0%

H 78% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 3–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 1–1✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orijent2.3

Opatija0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIJENT · PPG 1.25

OPATIJA · PPG 0.77

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Orijent (H) 77.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +51.3%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -54.2%

Opatija (A) 6.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -75.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orijent face Opatija in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orijent a 78% chance, the draw 16% and Opatija 7%, so Orijent are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Orijent and 0.5 for Opatija (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orijent are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.77 for Opatija. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Orijent vs Opatija Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions