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Sporting Gijon vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:15

Sporting Gijon

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cadiz

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.3%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.0%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.5%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 64.1% 1.56 -6.7%

Draw 23.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.1%

Away win 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.8%

Over 2.5 46.4% 51.3% 1.95 -9.5%

Over 3.5 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -15.3%

BTTS 45.1% 52.4% 1.91 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.1%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Gijon1.7

Cadiz0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 1.83

CADIZ · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Gijon (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -6.7%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.1%

Cadiz (A) 16.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Gijon face Cadiz in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Gijon a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Cadiz 17%, so Sporting Gijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sporting Gijon and 0.8 for Cadiz (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Gijon are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.06 for Cadiz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Sporting Gijon vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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