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Lugano B vs BSC Y. Boys B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Lugano B

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

BSC Y. Boys B

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.7%0-27.7%0-36.8%0-4+8.7%1 1-02.5%1-16.7%1-28.9%1-38.0%1-4+10.2%2 2-01.5%2-13.9%2-25.2%2-34.7%2-4+6.0%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-22.0%3-31.8%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 40.0% 2.50 -64.3%

Draw 16.3% 28.6% 3.50 -43.0%

Away win 69.4% 43.5% 2.30 +59.6%

Over 2.5 73.9% 66.7% 1.50 +10.8%

Over 3.5 53.6% — — —

BTTS 64.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-6

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob64.2%

A 69% / xG 1.2-2.7 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–3 8.0%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–3 6.8%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano B1.2

BSC Y. Boys B2.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO B · PPG 1.43

BSC Y. BOYS B · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Lugano B (H) 14.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -64.3%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -43.0%

BSC Y. Boys B (A) 69.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +59.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano B face BSC Y. Boys B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano B a 14% chance, the draw 16% and BSC Y. Boys B 69%, so BSC Y. Boys B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lugano B and 2.7 for BSC Y. Boys B (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano B are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.62 for BSC Y. Boys B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.6%. This match finished 0-6.

Lugano B vs BSC Y. Boys B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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