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Torremolinos vs Real Betis B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Torremolinos

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Real Betis B

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+34.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.8%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-17.2%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.1%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-17.9%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-19.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.9% 54.1% 1.85 +34.9%

Draw 15.8% 28.6% 3.50 -44.7%

Away win 11.3% 27.4% 3.65 -58.8%

Over 2.5 67.7% 51.8% 1.93 +30.7%

Over 3.5 46.1% 29.9% 3.35 +54.4%

BTTS 55.6% 56.5% 1.77 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.6%

H 73% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torremolinos2.6

Real Betis B0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREMOLINOS · PPG 1.56

REAL BETIS B · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.56), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Torremolinos (H) 72.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +34.9%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -44.7%

Real Betis B (A) 11.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -58.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torremolinos face Real Betis B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torremolinos a 73% chance, the draw 16% and Real Betis B 11%, so Torremolinos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Torremolinos and 0.9 for Real Betis B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torremolinos are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Real Betis B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Torremolinos vs Real Betis B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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