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Kansas City W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 00:00

Kansas City W

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing Louisville W

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.5%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.6%1-16.8%1-23.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.1%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-110.3%4+-25.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Draw 18.1% 23.8% 4.20 -14.4%

Away win 18.2% 19.6% 5.10 -4.3%

Over 2.5 67.0% 67.6% 1.48 -0.8%

Over 3.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

BTTS 60.3% 64.5% 1.55 -6.5%

Home O1.5 64.0% 70.4% 1.42 -9.1%

Away O1.5 32.3% 33.9% 2.95 -4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 64% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kansas City W2.7

Racing Louisville W1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 2.71

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kansas City W (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -4.5%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.4%

Racing Louisville W (A) 18.2%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kansas City W face Racing Louisville W in USA - NWSL on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kansas City W a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Racing Louisville W 18%, so Kansas City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Kansas City W and 1.0 for Racing Louisville W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kansas City W are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.38 for Racing Louisville W. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +7.0%.

Kansas City W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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