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Kansas City W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 22:30

Kansas City W

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Angel City W

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.3%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.7%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.4%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -9.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 38.5% 2.60 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kansas City W1.6

Angel City W1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 2.75

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kansas City W (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -0.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Angel City W (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kansas City W face Angel City W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kansas City W a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Angel City W 27%, so Kansas City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kansas City W and 1.2 for Angel City W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kansas City W are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Angel City W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Kansas City W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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