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Utah Royals W vs Portland Thorns W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 23:00

Utah Royals W

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Portland Thorns W

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.1%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.6%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.3%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Over 2.5 53.4% 60.6% 1.65 -11.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 39.2% 2.55 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utah Royals W1.6

Portland Thorns W1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 1.88

PORTLAND THORNS W · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Utah Royals W (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -6.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Portland Thorns W (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utah Royals W face Portland Thorns W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utah Royals W a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Portland Thorns W 24%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Utah Royals W and 1.1 for Portland Thorns W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utah Royals W are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.11 for Portland Thorns W.

Utah Royals W vs Portland Thorns W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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