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Bay FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:45

Bay FC W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seattle Reign FC W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.4%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.8%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 35.7% 2.80 +21.8%

Draw 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -4.2%

Away win 28.3% 44.4% 2.25 -21.8%

Over 2.5 47.5% 56.5% 1.77 -15.9%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 42.0% 2.38 -22.4%

Away O1.5 31.4% 48.8% 2.05 -35.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bay FC W1.2

Seattle Reign FC W1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BAY FC W · PPG 1.00

SEATTLE REIGN FC W · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bay FC W (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +21.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.2%

Seattle Reign FC W (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bay FC W face Seattle Reign FC W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bay FC W a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Seattle Reign FC W 28%, so Bay FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bay FC W and 1.0 for Seattle Reign FC W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bay FC W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Seattle Reign FC W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Bay FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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