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Racing Louisville W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 20:00

Racing Louisville W

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.1%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-19.8%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.0%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-14.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 63.7% 1.57 -13.3%

Draw 23.3% 25.3% 3.95 -4.8%

Away win 21.5% 21.1% 4.75 +1.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 64.5% 1.55 -21.9%

Over 3.5 28.9% 42.0% 2.38 -18.7%

BTTS 48.7% 63.7% 1.57 -23.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 66.7% 1.50 -19.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 33.9% 2.95 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Louisville W1.9

Chicago Red Stars W0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 1.14

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Racing Louisville W (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.8%

Chicago Red Stars W (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Louisville W face Chicago Red Stars W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Louisville W a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Chicago Red Stars W 22%, so Racing Louisville W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Racing Louisville W and 0.7 for Chicago Red Stars W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Louisville W are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.38 for Chicago Red Stars W.

Racing Louisville W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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