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Washington Spirit W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 20:00

Washington Spirit W

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Diego Wave W

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+34.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.9%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.9%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.5%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 38.2% 2.62 +34.4%

Draw 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Away win 23.3% 42.6% 2.35 -27.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

BTTS 49.8% 58.8% 1.70 -15.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 40.8% 2.45 +11.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 43.5% 2.30 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.8%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Washington Spirit W1.5

San Diego Wave W0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W · PPG 2.29

SAN DIEGO WAVE W · PPG 2.12

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Washington Spirit W (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +34.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

San Diego Wave W (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Washington Spirit W face San Diego Wave W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Washington Spirit W a 51% chance, the draw 25% and San Diego Wave W 23%, so Washington Spirit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Washington Spirit W and 0.8 for San Diego Wave W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Washington Spirit W are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 2.12 for San Diego Wave W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.2%.

Washington Spirit W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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