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North Carolina Courage W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 00:00

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orlando Pride W

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.7%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.6%1-111.9%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 54.1% 1.85 -14.2%

Draw 24.9% 29.0% 3.45 -8.5%

Away win 28.6% 27.8% 3.60 +1.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Away O1.5 36.5% 34.7% 2.88 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Carolina Courage W1.5

Orlando Pride W1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.25

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North Carolina Courage W (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.5%

Orlando Pride W (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Carolina Courage W face Orlando Pride W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Carolina Courage W a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Orlando Pride W 29%, so North Carolina Courage W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for North Carolina Courage W and 1.2 for Orlando Pride W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Carolina Courage W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Orlando Pride W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

North Carolina Courage W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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