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Alcorcon vs Villarreal B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Alcorcon

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Villarreal B

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-112.5%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-16.9%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.4%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 47.6% 2.10 -12.8%

Draw 32.1% 33.9% 2.95 -5.3%

Away win 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -7.6%

Over 2.5 27.6% 43.5% 2.30 -36.5%

Over 3.5 11.3% 23.8% 4.20 -52.5%

BTTS 35.1% 52.6% 1.90 -33.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob35.1%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 16.1%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alcorcon1.1

Villarreal B0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.6% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALCORCON · PPG 1.63

VILLARREAL B · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Alcorcon (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -5.3%

Villarreal B (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alcorcon face Villarreal B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alcorcon a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Villarreal B 26%, so Alcorcon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Alcorcon and 0.8 for Villarreal B (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alcorcon are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.44 for Villarreal B. This match finished 2-3.

Alcorcon vs Villarreal B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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