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Operario-PR vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 22:30

Operario-PR

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

São Bernardo

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.3%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.2%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.0%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 52.6% 1.90 -7.5%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 26.7% 23.8% 4.20 +7.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 47.6% 2.10 +12.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 26.7% 3.75 +21.1%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 28.2% 3.55 +25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario-PR1.5

São Bernardo1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 2.10

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Operario-PR (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -7.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

São Bernardo (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario-PR face São Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario-PR a 49% chance, the draw 25% and São Bernardo 27%, so Operario-PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Operario-PR and 1.2 for São Bernardo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario-PR are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.78 for São Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.7%.

Operario-PR vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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