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D. Puerto Montt vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 16:30

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Antofagasta

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.9%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.9%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 41.7% 2.40 +16.6%

Draw 28.0% 31.3% 3.20 -6.2%

Away win 23.3% 36.4% 2.75 -21.6%

Over 2.5 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Over 3.5 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 38.5% 41.7% 2.40 -7.6%

Away O1.5 21.3% 37.7% 2.65 -26.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Puerto Montt1.3

Antofagasta0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 2.00

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

D. Puerto Montt (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +16.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.2%

Antofagasta (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Puerto Montt face Antofagasta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Puerto Montt a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Antofagasta 23%, so D. Puerto Montt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for D. Puerto Montt and 0.9 for Antofagasta (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Puerto Montt are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Antofagasta. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.7%.

D. Puerto Montt vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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