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Recoleta vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 19:00

Recoleta

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.6%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-112.0%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 44.4% 2.25 +13.2%

Draw 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Away win 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.9% 25.6% 3.90 +7.6%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 48.2% 42.6% 2.35 +13.3%

Away O1.5 35.0% 33.3% 3.00 +5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 40.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta1.6

D. Puerto Montt1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.50

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +13.2%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

D. Puerto Montt (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face D. Puerto Montt in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 50% chance, the draw 26% and D. Puerto Montt 24%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Recoleta and 1.0 for D. Puerto Montt (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Puerto Montt. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.3%.

Recoleta vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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