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Deportes Temuco vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 00:00

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Copiapo

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.0%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.3%1-19.9%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.6%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 54.1% 1.85 +3.6%

Draw 22.3% 29.9% 3.35 -15.2%

Away win 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -10.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.3% 1.95 +4.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 29.0% 3.45 +11.1%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Away O1.5 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Temuco2.0

Deportes Copiapo0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.29

DEPORTES COPIAPO · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Temuco (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +3.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.2%

Deportes Copiapo (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Temuco face Deportes Copiapo in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Temuco a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Deportes Copiapo 22%, so Deportes Temuco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportes Temuco and 0.9 for Deportes Copiapo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Temuco are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.88 for Deportes Copiapo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Deportes Temuco vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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