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Union Espanola vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 17 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 23:00

Union Espanola

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Recoleta

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.2%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.6%1-19.1%1-25.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-17.0%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Draw 22.1% 29.0% 3.45 -14.2%

Away win 23.4% 25.6% 3.90 -5.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.1% 33.3% 3.00 +20.3%

BTTS 62.5% 59.9% 1.67 +4.4%

Home O1.5 61.8% 55.6% 1.80 +11.2%

Away O1.5 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Espanola2.1

Recoleta1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 2.12

RECOLETA · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Espanola (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.2%

Recoleta (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Espanola face Recoleta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Espanola a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Recoleta 23%, so Union Espanola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Union Espanola and 1.2 for Recoleta (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Espanola are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.43 for Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.3%.

Union Espanola vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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