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Curico Unido vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:30

Curico Unido

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cobreloa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.2%0-26.4%0-33.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.4%1-111.4%1-28.8%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-17.9%2-26.1%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.3%3-13.6%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 37.0% 2.70 +3.7%

Draw 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Away win 35.9% 41.7% 2.40 -13.8%

Over 2.5 61.2% 51.3% 1.95 +19.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 29.4% 3.40 +26.8%

BTTS 62.1% 58.8% 1.70 +5.6%

Home O1.5 40.2% 39.2% 2.55 +2.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 43.5% 2.30 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curico Unido1.4

Cobreloa1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 1.38

COBRELOA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Curico Unido (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +3.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

Cobreloa (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curico Unido face Cobreloa in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curico Unido a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Cobreloa 36%, so Curico Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Curico Unido and 1.6 for Cobreloa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curico Unido are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Cobreloa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.8%.

Curico Unido vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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