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Antofagasta vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:00

Antofagasta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union San Felipe

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.3%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.5%1-16.1%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.2%3-17.1%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.2%4+-18.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 65.4% 1.53 +9.8%

Draw 18.6% 24.4% 4.10 -14.2%

Away win 9.6% 19.6% 5.10 -30.6%

Over 2.5 63.6% 61.7% 1.62 +3.0%

Over 3.5 40.0% 40.0% 2.50 0.0%

BTTS 48.7% 60.6% 1.65 -19.7%

Home O1.5 64.0% 66.7% 1.50 -4.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 30.8% 3.25 -26.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 72% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 3–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antofagasta2.6

Union San Felipe0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 2.00

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.44

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Antofagasta (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +9.8%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -14.2%

Union San Felipe (A) 9.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antofagasta face Union San Felipe in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antofagasta a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Union San Felipe 10%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Antofagasta and 0.6 for Union San Felipe (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antofagasta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.44 for Union San Felipe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Antofagasta vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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