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San Marcos de Arica vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 00:30

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Iquique

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-14.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.4%1-19.2%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-15.4%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-13.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 52.4% 1.91 +13.1%

Draw 22.1% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Away win 18.7% 27.8% 3.60 -19.6%

Over 2.5 51.2% 51.8% 1.93 -1.2%

Over 3.5 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

BTTS 48.7% 57.8% 1.73 -15.8%

Home O1.5 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 33.3% 3.00 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 3–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marcos de Arica1.9

Deportes Iquique0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.88

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 0.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Marcos de Arica (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +13.1%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

Deportes Iquique (A) 18.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marcos de Arica face Deportes Iquique in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marcos de Arica a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Deportes Iquique 19%, so San Marcos de Arica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for San Marcos de Arica and 0.6 for Deportes Iquique (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marcos de Arica are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.29 for Deportes Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

San Marcos de Arica vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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