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Magallanes vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:30

Magallanes

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Espanola

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.1%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.8%1-19.9%1-26.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.0%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.8%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 44.4% 2.25 +16.8%

Draw 22.2% 28.2% 3.55 -12.7%

Away win 25.9% 37.0% 2.70 -18.0%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.5% 1.55 -1.4%

Over 3.5 40.6% 42.0% 2.38 -3.4%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 54.6% 1.83 -1.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 48.8% 2.05 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 40.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes1.9

Union Espanola1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.43

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +16.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.7%

Union Espanola (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face Union Espanola in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Union Espanola 26%, so Magallanes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Magallanes and 1.3 for Union Espanola (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.71 for Union Espanola. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.3%.

Magallanes vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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