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Deportes Santa Cruz vs Santiago Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 21:30

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.9%0-27.0%0-34.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.0%1-110.6%1-29.3%1-35.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.1%2-26.3%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.8%3-13.2%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 39.2% 2.55 -19.2%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 44.3% 41.7% 2.40 +6.3%

Over 2.5 61.3% 56.5% 1.77 +8.5%

Over 3.5 38.7% 33.9% 2.95 +14.2%

BTTS 62.1% 62.5% 1.60 -0.6%

Home O1.5 38.3% 44.4% 2.25 -13.8%

Away O1.5 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 40.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.1%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Santa Cruz1.3

Santiago Wanderers1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.00

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Santa Cruz (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -19.2%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Santiago Wanderers (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Santa Cruz face Santiago Wanderers in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Santa Cruz a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Santiago Wanderers 44%, so Santiago Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.8 for Santiago Wanderers (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Santa Cruz are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Santiago Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.2%.

Deportes Santa Cruz vs Santiago Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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