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ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:15

ADT

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Garcilaso

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-19.1%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.4%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.4%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-13.8%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Draw 28.2% 29.0% 3.45 -1.6%

Away win 23.4% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

Over 2.5 44.0% 51.3% 1.95 -14.2%

Over 3.5 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

BTTS 48.7% 57.1% 1.75 -14.8%

Home O1.5 38.3% 48.8% 2.05 -21.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 33.3% 3.00 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT1.4

Deportivo Garcilaso0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.40

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -3.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.6%

Deportivo Garcilaso (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Deportivo Garcilaso in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Garcilaso 23%, so ADT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for ADT and 0.8 for Deportivo Garcilaso (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.67 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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