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Cienciano vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 23:30

Cienciano

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universitario

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.2%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.7%1-111.0%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 42.0% 2.38 +18.3%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 25.7% 34.5% 2.90 -15.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Over 3.5 32.2% 28.6% 3.50 +12.7%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 43.5% 2.30 +13.6%

Away O1.5 33.5% 37.7% 2.65 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cienciano1.8

Universitario1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CIENCIANO · PPG 2.20

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cienciano (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +18.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Universitario (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cienciano face Universitario in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cienciano a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Universitario 26%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cienciano and 1.0 for Universitario (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cienciano are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.22 for Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.1%.

Cienciano vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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