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Atletico Grau vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 20:30

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sport Boys

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-110.0%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.6%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-16.7%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-12.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

Draw 29.5% 31.7% 3.15 -4.3%

Away win 21.4% 25.6% 3.90 -9.9%

Over 2.5 37.3% 42.6% 2.35 -12.3%

Over 3.5 18.6% 22.2% 4.50 -9.8%

BTTS 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Home O1.5 32.6% 43.5% 2.30 -25.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.3% 3.80 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 1–0 20.8%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau1.2

Sport Boys0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.56

SPORT BOYS · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -1.8%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.3%

Sport Boys (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face Sport Boys in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Sport Boys 21%, so Atletico Grau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico Grau and 0.6 for Sport Boys (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.44 for Sport Boys.

Atletico Grau vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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