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UCV Moquegua vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 20:30

UCV Moquegua

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.7%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.4%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 27.0% 3.70 +65.0%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Away win 29.5% 49.5% 2.02 -24.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 48.8% 2.05 +9.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 27.4% 3.65 +15.7%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 31.3% 3.20 +45.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV Moquegua1.4

FBC Melgar1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 1.67

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UCV Moquegua (H) 44.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +65.0%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

FBC Melgar (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face FBC Melgar in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 45% chance, the draw 26% and FBC Melgar 30%, so UCV Moquegua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for UCV Moquegua and 1.2 for FBC Melgar (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for FBC Melgar. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +45.3%.

UCV Moquegua vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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