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Cusco vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Cusco

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

UTC Cajamarca

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.9%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-18.7%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-17.2%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-16.8%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 63.7% 1.57 -3.3%

Draw 20.8% 25.6% 3.90 -11.3%

Away win 17.6% 17.9% 5.60 -0.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 55.6% 1.80 +10.5%

Over 3.5 39.4% 33.3% 3.00 +18.2%

BTTS 54.9% 55.6% 1.80 -1.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 60.6% 1.65 -0.8%

Away O1.5 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.9%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cusco2.2

UTC Cajamarca0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CUSCO · PPG 2.22

UTC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cusco (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -3.3%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.3%

UTC Cajamarca (A) 17.6%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cusco face UTC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cusco a 62% chance, the draw 21% and UTC Cajamarca 18%, so Cusco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cusco and 0.9 for UTC Cajamarca (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cusco are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.80 for UTC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.2%.

Cusco vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions