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FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sport Huancayo

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+23.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.5%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.0%1-16.7%1-23.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-19.0%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-110.2%4+-25.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 31.3% 3.20 +96.2%

Draw 18.4% 29.0% 3.45 -21.9%

Away win 20.2% 46.7% 2.14 -34.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 54.1% 1.85 +23.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 30.8% 3.25 +45.6%

BTTS 62.1% 58.8% 1.70 +5.6%

Home O1.5 64.0% 36.4% 2.75 +76.0%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 61% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca2.7

Sport Huancayo1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.44

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 0.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 1.44 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 61.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +96.2%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -21.9%

Sport Huancayo (A) 20.2%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face Sport Huancayo in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 61% chance, the draw 18% and Sport Huancayo 20%, so FC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for FC Cajamarca and 1.1 for Sport Huancayo (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.20 for Sport Huancayo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +144.0%.

FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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