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Athlone Town vs UCD Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

UCD

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.7%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.6%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 34.5% 2.90 +32.5%

Draw 26.2% 29.0% 3.45 -5.8%

Away win 28.1% 43.5% 2.30 -21.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.9% 2.95 -6.5%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 38.3% 41.7% 2.40 -8.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town1.3

UCD1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 1.67

UCD · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +32.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.8%

UCD (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face UCD in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 46% chance, the draw 26% and UCD 28%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Athlone Town and 1.1 for UCD (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.17 for UCD. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Athlone Town vs UCD Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions