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CSKA 1948 vs Arda Kardzhali Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:15

CSKA 1948

PPG 2.07 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arda Kardzhali

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.3%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.3%1-112.8%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.8%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 47.6% 2.10 -4.2%

Draw 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

Away win 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Over 2.5 45.6% 46.5% 2.15 -2.0%

Over 3.5 26.0% 25.3% 3.95 +1.6%

BTTS 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Home O1.5 38.3% 44.4% 2.25 -13.8%

Away O1.5 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA 19481.4

Arda Kardzhali1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA 1948 · PPG 2.07

ARDA KARDZHALI · PPG 1.32

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CSKA 1948 (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.2%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.0%

Arda Kardzhali (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA 1948 face Arda Kardzhali in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA 1948 a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Arda Kardzhali 24%, so CSKA 1948 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CSKA 1948 and 1.0 for Arda Kardzhali (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA 1948 are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.32 for Arda Kardzhali. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%.

CSKA 1948 vs Arda Kardzhali Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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