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Aguai U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 10 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:00

Aguai U20

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

São Paulo U20

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.61 for Away, form 1.00 vs 2.50

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-115.4%0-216.3%0-311.5%0-4+9.9%1 1-03.7%1-17.8%1-28.2%1-35.8%1-4+5.0%2 2-00.9%2-12.0%2-22.1%2-31.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 65.8% — — —

Over 2.5 52.7% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 47.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 54.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -76.5%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob47.5%

A 66% / xG 0.5-2.1 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.3%

#2 0–1 15.4%

#3 0–3 11.5%

#4 1–1 7.8%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aguai U200.5

São Paulo U202.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AGUAI U20 · PPG 1.00

SÃO PAULO U20 · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.61 for Away, form 1.00 vs 2.50

Win probability 1X2

Aguai U20 (H) 13.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

São Paulo U20 (A) 65.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aguai U20 face São Paulo U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aguai U20 a 13% chance, the draw 21% and São Paulo U20 66%, so São Paulo U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Aguai U20 and 2.1 for São Paulo U20 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aguai U20 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.50 for São Paulo U20.

Aguai U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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