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Guarani U20 vs Água Santa U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 10 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:00

Guarani U20

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Água Santa U20

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.1%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-110.0%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.8%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-14.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -76.5%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani U201.9

Água Santa U200.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI U20 · PPG 3.00

ÁGUA SANTA U20 · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guarani U20 (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Água Santa U20 (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani U20 face Água Santa U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani U20 a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Água Santa U20 21%, so Guarani U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Guarani U20 and 0.8 for Água Santa U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani U20 are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Água Santa U20.

Guarani U20 vs Água Santa U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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