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Portuguesa Santista U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 10 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:00

Portuguesa Santista U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sertãozinho U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.6%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.8%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 25.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -76.5%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa Santista U201.3

Sertãozinho U200.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA SANTISTA U20 · PPG 2.00

SERTÃOZINHO U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa Santista U20 (H) 48.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sertãozinho U20 (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa Santista U20 face Sertãozinho U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa Santista U20 a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sertãozinho U20 25%, so Portuguesa Santista U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Portuguesa Santista U20 and 0.9 for Sertãozinho U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa Santista U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sertãozinho U20.

Portuguesa Santista U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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