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Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:35

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hangzhou Greentown

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.2%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.2%1-19.1%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.1%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 64.5% 1.55 -13.2%

Draw 22.3% 22.7% 4.40 -1.1%

Away win 21.8% 21.7% 4.60 +0.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 75.2% 1.33 -15.4%

Over 3.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

BTTS 59.8% 73.5% 1.36 -18.7%

Home O1.5 60.1% 73.5% 1.36 -18.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 42.0% 2.38 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.8%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan2.2

Hangzhou Greentown1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.50

HANGZHOU GREENTOWN · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -13.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.1%

Hangzhou Greentown (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Hangzhou Greentown in China - Super League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Hangzhou Greentown 22%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Beijing Guoan and 1.1 for Hangzhou Greentown (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Hangzhou Greentown.

Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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