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Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 11:35

Henan Jianye

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.3%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.3%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.0%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.1%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 54.9% 1.82 +0.7%

Draw 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Away win 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 65.4% 1.53 -2.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.6% 2.35 -5.5%

BTTS 61.1% 67.6% 1.48 -9.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 60.6% 1.65 -0.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 40.8% 2.45 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.1%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan Jianye2.1

Dalian Zhixing1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN JIANYE · PPG 1.44

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Henan Jianye (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV +0.7%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

Dalian Zhixing (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan Jianye face Dalian Zhixing in China - Super League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan Jianye a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Dalian Zhixing 23%, so Henan Jianye are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Henan Jianye and 1.1 for Dalian Zhixing (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan Jianye are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.78 for Dalian Zhixing.

Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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