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Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Tianjin Teda

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.2%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.0%1-110.1%1-26.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.9%3-16.2%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.6%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 40.7% 2.46 +30.9%

Draw 22.5% 28.2% 3.55 -12.1%

Away win 24.3% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 60.6% 1.65 +4.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.5% 2.60 +4.5%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 53.6% 47.6% 2.10 +12.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tianjin Teda1.9

Yunnan Yukun1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TIANJIN TEDA · PPG 1.00

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tianjin Teda (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +30.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.1%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tianjin Teda face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tianjin Teda a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Yunnan Yukun 24%, so Tianjin Teda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tianjin Teda and 1.3 for Yunnan Yukun (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.10 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%.

Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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