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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:35

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shandong Luneng

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.8%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.3%1-18.6%1-25.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.3%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.9%4+-24.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 53.2% 1.88 +3.2%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

Over 2.5 64.0% 74.1% 1.35 -13.6%

Over 3.5 41.3% 52.6% 1.90 -21.5%

BTTS 62.1% 75.2% 1.33 -17.4%

Home O1.5 60.1% 66.7% 1.50 -9.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 51.3% 1.95 -28.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SHANGHAI SIPG2.2

Shandong Luneng1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 1.67

SHANDONG LUNENG · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SHANGHAI SIPG (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +3.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Shandong Luneng (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SHANGHAI SIPG face Shandong Luneng in China - Super League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Shandong Luneng 23%, so SHANGHAI SIPG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.2 for Shandong Luneng (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.20 for Shandong Luneng. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.6%.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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