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Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Chengdu Better City

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wuhan Three Towns

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-15.9%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.6%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.5%4+-111.5%4+-24.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 76.9% 1.30 -15.0%

Draw 17.0% 20.4% 4.90 -10.0%

Away win 17.6% 11.8% 8.50 +29.8%

Over 2.5 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Over 3.5 44.5% 51.3% 1.95 -13.2%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 74.8% 78.1% 1.28 -4.3%

Away O1.5 20.3% 28.2% 3.55 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 65% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu Better City2.9

Wuhan Three Towns0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU BETTER CITY · PPG 2.30

WUHAN THREE TOWNS · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 2.30 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu Better City (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -15.0%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -10.0%

Wuhan Three Towns (A) 17.6%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu Better City face Wuhan Three Towns in China - Super League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu Better City a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Wuhan Three Towns 18%, so Chengdu Better City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Chengdu Better City and 0.8 for Wuhan Three Towns (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.50 for Wuhan Three Towns. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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