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Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 11:35

Chengdu Better City

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.3%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.2%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.1%3-16.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 53.2% 1.88 +7.2%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Away win 20.4% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

Over 2.5 60.7% 65.4% 1.53 -7.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 43.5% 2.30 -13.8%

BTTS 55.2% 69.0% 1.45 -20.0%

Home O1.5 61.8% 59.9% 1.67 +3.2%

Away O1.5 20.1% 42.0% 2.38 -31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.2%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu Better City2.1

Beijing Guoan0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU BETTER CITY · PPG 2.44

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu Better City (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +7.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

Beijing Guoan (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu Better City face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu Better City a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Beijing Guoan 20%, so Chengdu Better City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Chengdu Better City and 0.9 for Beijing Guoan (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.50 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.2%.

Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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