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Internacional vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Internacional

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mirassol

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-18.5%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-111.9%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-18.3%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 56.8% 1.76 -4.6%

Draw 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -3.4%

Away win 18.2% 21.5% 4.65 -15.4%

Over 2.5 34.3% 47.6% 2.10 -28.0%

Over 3.5 15.6% 26.0% 3.85 -39.9%

BTTS 37.0% 51.3% 1.95 -27.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.0%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.4

Mirassol0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.3% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 0.83

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.83) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -4.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.4%

Mirassol (A) 18.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 54% chance, the draw 28% and Mirassol 18%, so Internacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Internacional and 0.7 for Mirassol (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.25 for Mirassol. This match finished 1-2.

Internacional vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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