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Sumqayit vs Qabala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Sumqayit

PPG 1.08 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Qabala

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+27.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.6%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-111.3%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.6%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 42.6% 2.35 +27.1%

Draw 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -28.6%

Away win 22.1% 34.5% 2.90 -35.9%

Over 2.5 51.3% 45.5% 2.20 +12.9%

Over 3.5 29.2% 23.8% 4.20 +22.6%

BTTS 52.1% 54.1% 1.85 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 54% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0✓ 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sumqayit1.7

Qabala1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.08

QABALA · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Sumqayit (H) 54.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +27.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -28.6%

Qabala (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sumqayit face Qabala in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sumqayit a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Qabala 22%, so Sumqayit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sumqayit and 1.0 for Qabala (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sumqayit are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.64 for Qabala. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Sumqayit vs Qabala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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