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WDSC Wolves vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 09:30

WDSC Wolves

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane City

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.2%0-24.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.8%1 1-03.5%1-17.5%1-28.0%1-35.8%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.9%3-14.0%3-24.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.7%4+-22.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

Draw 22.0% 25.0% 4.00 -7.2%

Away win 41.6% 39.2% 2.55 +6.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 80.0% 1.25 -16.3%

Over 3.5 44.9% 58.8% 1.70 -23.7%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 65.4% 1.53 -24.4%

Away O1.5 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.5%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WDSC Wolves1.8

Brisbane City2.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WDSC WOLVES · PPG 1.33

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 2.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

WDSC Wolves (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.2%

Brisbane City (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

WDSC Wolves face Brisbane City in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WDSC Wolves a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Brisbane City 42%, so Brisbane City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for WDSC Wolves and 2.1 for Brisbane City (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WDSC Wolves are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.22 for Brisbane City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

WDSC Wolves vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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