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Deportivo Garcilaso vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 00:00

Deportivo Garcilaso

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Cajamarca

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.2%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-19.0%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-16.8%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-15.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 66.2% 1.51 -6.4%

Draw 20.6% 26.3% 3.80 -13.0%

Away win 17.4% 14.7% 6.80 +11.0%

Over 2.5 60.7% 50.0% 2.00 +21.4%

Over 3.5 37.5% 29.0% 3.45 +29.4%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 58.8% 1.70 +5.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 21.1% 4.75 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 12.8%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Garcilaso2.1

FC Cajamarca0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO · PPG 2.22

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Garcilaso (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -6.4%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.0%

FC Cajamarca (A) 17.4%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Garcilaso face FC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso a 62% chance, the draw 21% and FC Cajamarca 17%, so Deportivo Garcilaso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.8 for FC Cajamarca (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Garcilaso are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.56 for FC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.4%.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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