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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 20:00

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Comerciantes Unidos

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.3%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-110.1%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-16.1%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 54.3% 1.84 +2.9%

Draw 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

Away win 21.7% 24.4% 4.10 -6.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Over 3.5 30.6% 29.0% 3.45 +5.6%

BTTS 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Home O1.5 53.6% 51.8% 1.93 +3.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 29.4% 3.40 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Deportivo Los Chankas1.9

Comerciantes Unidos0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS · PPG 2.50

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +2.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%

Comerciantes Unidos (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Deportivo Los Chankas face Comerciantes Unidos in Peru - Primera División on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Deportivo Los Chankas a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Comerciantes Unidos 22%, so Club Deportivo Los Chankas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 0.8 for Comerciantes Unidos (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Deportivo Los Chankas are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Comerciantes Unidos. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.9%.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions