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Utah Royals W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 01:00

Utah Royals W

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Washington Spirit W

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-111.3%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.8%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 32.3% 3.10 +17.5%

Draw 28.1% 29.4% 3.40 -2.7%

Away win 34.1% 48.8% 2.05 -30.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 56.5% 1.77 -10.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 51.3% 1.95 -28.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utah Royals W1.2

Washington Spirit W1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 2.14

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W · PPG 1.89

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Utah Royals W (H) 37.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +17.5%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.7%

Washington Spirit W (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utah Royals W face Washington Spirit W in USA - NWSL on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utah Royals W a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Washington Spirit W 34%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Utah Royals W and 1.1 for Washington Spirit W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utah Royals W are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.89 for Washington Spirit W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.9%.

Utah Royals W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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