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Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 01:00

Fortaleza FC

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-18.7%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.4%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-15.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 65.4% 1.53 -5.8%

Draw 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

Away win 17.6% 15.2% 6.60 +9.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 26.3% 3.80 +22.4%

BTTS 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Home O1.5 60.1% 56.5% 1.77 +6.4%

Away O1.5 19.5% 20.0% 5.00 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza FC2.1

Deportivo Pereira0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA FC · PPG 1.80

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza FC (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.6%

Deportivo Pereira (A) 17.6%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza FC face Deportivo Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza FC a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Deportivo Pereira 18%, so Fortaleza FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fortaleza FC and 0.6 for Deportivo Pereira (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza FC are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.27 for Deportivo Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +26.6%.

Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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