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America de Cali vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 22:45

America de Cali

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chico

PPG 0.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-12.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.1%1-15.7%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.3%2-17.0%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.1%3-15.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.5%4+-16.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.2% 74.6% 1.34 -1.9%

Draw 17.7% 22.7% 4.40 -13.3%

Away win 9.1% 9.8% 10.25 -4.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 51.3% 1.95 +19.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 29.0% 3.45 +28.7%

BTTS 45.4% 42.6% 2.35 +6.7%

Home O1.5 60.8% 63.7% 1.57 -4.5%

Away O1.5 11.1% 15.4% 6.50 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.4%

H 73% / xG 2.4-0.4 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.3%

#2 3–0 14.1%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 4–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America de Cali2.4

Chico0.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 2.20

CHICO · PPG 0.10

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.04 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.10 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

America de Cali (H) 73.2%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -1.9%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -13.3%

Chico (A) 9.1%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

America de Cali face Chico in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America de Cali a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Chico 9%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for America de Cali and 0.4 for Chico (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America de Cali are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.10 for Chico. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.7%.

America de Cali vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions